The Affordable Housing Crisis May Have Cost Us An Election

An open letter to the Democratic National Committee, the Democratic Party of Virginia, and all elected Democratic leadership

As Democrats across the nation scramble to explain the results of the election and prevent a recurrence, we must consider the impact of the affordable housing crisis. Beyond influencing their vote, housing instability, coupled with outdated data, may have significantly dampened our efforts to reach and inform voters.

I am a local progressive elected leader in Richmond, Virginia. That means I believe in transparent governance that is free of corporate influence. I publicly supported a ceasefire in Gaza. I have fought to protect and expand union workforces. I prioritize funding for safe schools, clean air, and secure housing.

I first ran for the school board in a special election in 2017 after working for several years as an involved parent and public education advocate. In 2020, I ran for re-election. This year, I ran a third successful campaign to represent the same district on city council.

All three of my campaigns were grassroots efforts. I didn’t have the financial support of big business or establishment party leadership. That’s been a blessing though, because I’m able to run and serve, prioritizing the needs of working Richmonders. We won by mobilizing hundreds of volunteers to spread a message that has resonated with residents — that our city and schools transform when we empower workers and community members. We knocked on tens of thousands of doors in each campaign to hear first hand what challenges we are facing and to talk about how we can charter a new course.

I’ve joked that our sneakers are the secret to our success. Nothing can match the power of one-on-one conversations at a person’s front door, particularly when you’re a candidate with a track record and a common sense message.

Back in 2017, our tools were old school. We printed out voter lists and carried clipboards as we canvassed neighborhoods. We cut turf lists with about 50 homes, and over the course of a couple hours, I’d finish the list having spoken to about 10 people. In 2020, our contact rate was the same. The only difference was that in 2020 we carried our lists on our phones.

In 2024, we used the same system and cut our lists the same way, but the results were drastically different. I felt lucky if I made contact with half as many voters as we did in previous campaign years. There are always folks that aren’t home or who don’t want to talk, but this time around outdated voter contact information seemed much more common — houses were vacant, new people had moved in, and for sale signs were up.

Without question, the biggest campaign issue in Richmond in 2024 was affordable housing. Residents are getting pushed out. On the national level, there has been a bipartisan push to eliminate funding for traditional public housing and put it into private hands. In Richmond, we hired public housing executives from out of town who have experience leveraging privatization to eliminate traditional public housing. There are plans to do the same here. This is a Democratic city and yet we are facilitating displacement of long time, low income residents. The latest census showed that there are about six thousand fewer African Americans living in Richmond compared to 2010.

This is tangible in my district. Washington Park, an established Black neighborhood in the Northside, recently celebrated its historic Virginia marker and Green Book recognition. On an evening when I knocked doors there with a volunteer, we didn’t make contact with a single resident. Many houses are vacant and the neighborhood is peppered with new construction as existing homes are razed.

So on Election Day when our poll volunteers reported the slow trickle of voters, I wasn’t entirely surprised. In Richmond, many residents took advantage of early voting, but when you look at the final vote tallies in the city, it’s clear that early voting wasn’t the reason the polls were slow. Voter turnout dropped from 69% to 62% in Richmond. Low turnout in urban centers was a trend statewide.

There were thousands fewer voters in a growing city. This should cause alarm for all of us. In Richmond we can’t blame a lack of outreach. In our local elections alone, there were five mayoral candidates, eighteen city council candidates, and sixteen school board candidates — all of whom were out knocking doors and talking about the upcoming election. I’ve heard from other candidates and organizations that their contact rates were also low this year.

Housing turnover impacts more than canvassing. The same voter lists campaigns used for door knocking were used for direct mail and phone banking. Because of displacement, tens and thousands of mailers, calls, and texts never made it to the voters they were intended to reach.

Our party lost its way as corporate interests trumped the needs of workers. We lost everyday Americans as a result. We don’t know where Democratic voters were on November 5th because luxury apartments and condos replaced affordable homes in “blue” urban centers across the country — folks were forced to move.

Given the pace of change, our ability to elect Kamala Harris was directly tied to access to up-to-date voter data. Software company NGP VAN, in partnership with the Democratic party, sells access to voter databases. NGP VAN is extremely costly and impacts crucial races nationwide. Because they are effectively a monopoly, when NGP VAN makes cuts to help their bottom line, their decisions could have massive implications on our national democracy. On numerous occasions, we personally knew people who had moved in or out of the district, and their voting address was only updated after they voted. The DNC and state parties owe it to us to audit its processes to maintain voter data and to investigate possible ramifications of NGP VAN’s 2023 layoffs after their sale to a private equity firm in 2022.

As we look for a path forward, there are actions Democratic party leadership must take. In Virginia, we must both reflect and act quickly in preparation for statewide elections next year. We cannot elect another Glenn Youngkin in 2025, and the federal election results don’t bode well.

Housing stability matters. Stability impacts community through employment, performance of our schools, and access to resources often only found in cities. Housing stability impacts elections.

We win when we enact policies to support everyday Americans and we reach the voters we aim to serve. This means setting a platform and message that will unify working people by attacking the affordable housing crisis head on and addressing the exploding cost of living with universal healthcare, livable wages through unionization, and accessible education. We need to craft an agenda that helps everyday people like us in substantial ways, not just tinker around the edges. Prices are still higher relative to income. Democrats spent the election cycle trying to convince the country that the economy was doing very well, but it’s not believable to voters if economic factors forced them to leave the place they call home.

We cannot repeat history in Virginia. We can change the course of the party if we know where our voters are, meet them where they are at, listen to them, and act.